California is "considering state ownership of one or more oil refineries," reports the Los Angeles Times.
They call the idea "one item on a list of options presented by the California Energy Commission to ensure steady gas supplies as oil companies pull back from the refinery business in the state."
"The state recognizes that they're on a pathway to more refinery closures," said Skip York, chief energy strategist at energy consultant Turner Mason & Co. The risk to consumers and the state's economy, he said, is gasoline supply disappearing faster than consumer demand, resulting in fuel shortages, higher prices and severe logistical challenges.
Gasoline demand is falling in California, albeit slowly, for two reasons: more efficient gasoline engines, and the increasing number of electric vehicles on the road. Gasoline consumption in California peaked in 2005 and fell 15% through 2023, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. Electric vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, now represent about 25% of annual new car sales... The drop in demand is causing fundamental strategic shifts among the state's major oil refiners: Chevron, Marathon, Phillips 66, PBF Energy and Valero.
Already, two California refineries have ceased producing gasoline to make biodiesel fuel for use in heavy-duty trucks, a cleaner-fuel alternative that enjoys rich state subsidies. More worrisome, the Phillips 66 refinery complex in Wilmington, just outside Los Angeles, plans to close down permanently by year's end. That leaves eight major refineries in California capable of producing gasoline. The closure of any one would create serious gasoline supply issues, industry analysts say. But both Chevron and Valero are contemplating permanent refinery closures. The implications? "Demand will decline gradually," York said, "but supply will fall out in chunks." What's unknown is how many refineries will close, and how soon, and how that will affect supply and demand...
A state refinery takeover seems like a radical idea, but the fact that it's being considered demonstrates the seriousness of the supply issue. It's one of several option laid out by the California Energy Commission, which is fulfilling a legislative order to find ways to ensure "a reliable supply of affordable and safe transportation fuels in California." The options list is disparate: Ship in more gasoline from Asia; regulate refineries on the order of electric utilities; cap profit margins; and many more.
92% of California's gas is produced in refineries, the Times reports. But the special gasoline blends required to reduce air pollution "also drive up gasoline prices and raise the risk of shortages, because little such gasoline is produced outside California."
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